Everybody better brush up on their exactas, trifectas, quinellas and other exotics bets before Saturday. Lead handicapper for the Churchill Downs–owned TwinSpires, Ed DeRosa, is predicting that local hero Tiz the Law will enter Saturday’s Kentucky Derby as the biggest favorite in 28 years.
After today’s Eleventh Hour withdrawal of second favorite Art Collector, oddsmakers have trimmed the price of Tiz The Law to an area rarely seen in the world of horse racing, especially at Triple Crown race such as the Kentucky Derby. DeRosa, who rated Tiz the Law a 6/5 favorite on September 1, now expects the Thoroughbred to enter the race, which runs on September 5, at a paltry 4/5 odds. (In other words, if you bet $2 on Tiz the Law to win at 4/5 odds, the net payout would be just $1.60.) That would make the Sackatoga Stable–owned Tiz the Law the largest favorite since 1992.
“Tiz the Law is the most likely winner of a Derby in my living memory,” says DeRosa. “He was a deserving favorite even before Art Collector’s defection of the race, but now he’s more likely to win the race than to lose, and the bettors should see it the same way.”
In this year’s nontraditional Triple Crown, Tiz the Law has already won the Belmont Stakes back in June, and as an unofficial Derby prep, the Travers Stakes early last month. If he takes the Derby this Saturday, Tiz the Law will only have to best the field in the Preakness Stakes on October 3 at Pimlico Race Course to win a coveted Triple Crown.
To take Art Collector’s place, DeRosa has set Honor A.P. as the second favorite at 6/1 odds, while Authentic lands 8/1 odds. Check out DeRosa’s full field below:
Tiz The Law (4/5)
Honor A.P. (6/1)
Authentic (8/1)
NY Traffic (20/1)
Thousand Words (20/1)
King Guillermo (20/1)
Max Player (20/1)
Enforceable (30/1)
Money Moves (30/1)
South Bend (30/1)
Finnick The Fierce (50/1)
Storm The Court (50/1)
Major Fed (50/1)
Mr. Big News (50/1)
Necker Island (50/1)
Sole Volante (50/1)
Attachment Rate (50/1)
Winning Impression (50/1)