SARATOGA LIVINGThe City. The Culture. The Life.

There’s been a lot of scuttlebutt about whether New York State will reopen—whether it be, say, once the May 15 work-from-home order expires or months beyond that—but it does, at least at present, sound like it’s going to happen sooner rather than later.

While most New Yorkers have been waiting for and wondering whether Governor Andrew Cuomo will once again extend the work-from-home order, which is a little over three weeks from now, that hasn’t happened yet. And in his daily press briefing on April 26, Cuomo made no mention of an extension, but rather of a more tangible plan for reopening (and “reimagining”) the state. He noted that any type of reopening would be based on a Centers for Disease Control (CDC) directive, stating that the state and regional hospitalization rate would have to be in decline for 14 days. Then it would be up to the state itself to decide whether to reopen or not. Of course, per Cuomo in previous briefings, any reopening would not only be phased, but also be coordinated with our neighbor states such as Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey.

What would be a phased reopening look like? From a standing start, that would first mean that construction and manufacturing businesses would be able to reopen, but those with the lowest risk of driving up the infection rate. The next phase would be reopening more essential, low-risk businesses, who would then also have to do self-analyses on how to keep that risk low. There would be two weeks between the two phases of reopening, and the businesses and state itself would be closely monitoring it throughout.

Of course, reopening, say, a specific region, like Saratoga County, would come with a number of caveats, the most front-and-center of which being that it wouldn’t be able to have attractions or openings that drew larger numbers of visitors from adjacent states to a specific location. Clearly, without mentioning them by name during the briefing, Cuomo was referring to places like Saratoga Race Course and the Saratoga Performing Arts Center, though he did indirectly mention sports and wondered, rhetorically, whether they could be done without an audience. (As in, could a potential scenario for the racetrack be a fan-less summer meet?) Cuomo reemphasized that any decision would have to be made within a multi-state context.

So, exactly how close are we to reopening? According to Cuomo, the statewide infection rate now sits at 0.8 percent, down 0.1 percent from last we knew. Somewhat surprisingly, the current infection rate is higher in Upstate New York than it is downstate—0.9 percent versus 0.75 percent, respectively—but both effectively mean that one person infected with COVID-19 is infecting less than one person, which is good news. The key to gauging a region’s readiness to reopen will be based on a three-pronged monitoring system: noting the number of hospitalizations, positive antibody tests and positive diagnostic COVID-19 tests. If the state’s rate of transmission goes above 1.2 percent, then it’s back to square one.

Once again, total hospitalizations and intubations were down (the former being at the level they were on March 31). The number of new COVID-19 cases was also down to 1,000, a decline of 100, day over day. And the total number of deaths also dipped considerably, down to 367 on April 25 from 437 on April 24.

New York State still leads all other states in America with nearly 300,000 total COVID-19 cases and more than 22,000 total deaths.

New York State might be testing more people for COVID-19 than anywhere else in the world, but that hasn’t stopped Governor Andrew Cuomo from kicking that initiative into hyperdrive.

You might remember the results of the random antibody testing that took place earlier in the week, with a sample size of just 3,000. In his April 25 press briefing, Cuomo announced that the state had ramped that up to approximately 20,000 tests per day, with a stated goal, after meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House, of 40,000. Per the meeting in Washington, Cuomo noted that the deal would be that states were responsible for the laboratories where the tests would be processed, whereas the federal government would provide the assistance to national manufacturers needed to produce testing kits at scale (i.e. acquiring the hard-to-come-by chemical reagents and such).

In order to increase the testing capacity, Cuomo announced that he’d signed an executive order to authorize independent pharmacists—the mom-and-pop shops and nonnational chains—to conduct diagnostic COVID-19 tests, too (there are about 5,000 independent pharmacists across the state of New York, and Cuomo said he assumed most would make themselves available). By doing so, Cuomo argued, even more people, who may have been turned away from test sites during the early surge in cases, would be able to be tested for the virus now. He also emphasized that first responders, healthcare workers and employees deemed “essential” would get first dibs on the tests.

From a macro perspective, total hospitalizations are continuing to decline, and the number of new cases even dipped a little, day over day. And while the total number of reported deaths did increase slightly, from 422 on April 23 to 437 on April 24, the total is effectively flat.

New York State still leads all of the other states in the union with more than 275,000 COVID-19 cases and more than 20,000 deaths.

Surprise! The COVID-19 pandemic was unfolding in New York State a lot earlier than we thought. According to New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo in his April 24 press briefing, it is now assumed that there were up to 28,000 COVID-19 cases in the United States as early as February (January 26 marked the first recorded cases in Seattle and California). Of that total, in New York State alone there were 10,000 cases, likely coming over the Atlantic from Italy. Cuomo noted that, at the time, 13,000 international flights landed in airports in New York City and New Jersey, carrying some 2.2 million travelers from Europe.

To drive home the point, Cuomo noted the survival rate of the virus itself. It can live up to 72 hours on plastic and stainless steel surfaces, up to 24 hours on cardboard, up to 4 hours on copper and the droplets from an infected person’s cough or sneeze can hang in the air for as many as 3 hours before they fall to the ground.

Those data were shown to represent how fast the virus spread throughout the world (and the state)—and how careful the state has to be in reopening, given the possibility that there could be a “second wave” of the virus in the fall. To date, total hospitalizations and intubations continue to decline, and the number of new infections continues to flatten. The total number of COVID-19-related deaths also appears to be dipping, with 422 reported on April 23, as opposed to 438 on April 22. The real question, though, per Cuomo, is “how fast is the decline?”

In order to ensure that New Yorkers don’t have to risk exposure to the virus during elections, Governor Cuomo also announced that all New Yorkers would be sent forms that allow them to absentee vote for upcoming elections.

Finally, some clarity. In his April 23 press briefing, New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo revealed the results of the state’s recent antibody testing, which was collected over a two-day period and conducted in 19 counties and 40 localities.

Governor Cuomo revealed that the random testing of 3,000 people had been executed at grocery stores and big box stores on people who “were out and about shopping”—in other words, weren’t isolated in their homes or working “essential” jobs. Of the 100 percent of people who were tested, 13.9 percent tested positive for the COVID-19 antibody (i.e. those people had had the virus, recovered and subsequently, developed the antibodies). Those data boil down to the fact that 2.7 million people were infected statewide and just 0.5 percent of those people (or approximately 15,500) succumbed to the virus.

Reflecting the data that has been coming in throughout the past several weeks, just 3.6 percent of those tested in Upstate New York had their results come back positive. That’s as opposed to 21.2 percent who came back positive in New York City.

While this is certainly actionable data for the state, Cuomo noted that in order for specific regions to begin reopening, regional analyses would have to take place first. The reopening would also have to be a coordinated effort between all parts of the state and the other states, such as New Jersey and Massachusetts, that surround New York.

In New York, the total number of hospitalizations and intubations continues to decrease, and the number of new COVID-19 cases entering hospitals remains flat. New York still leads all states in the union with more than 260,000 COVID-19 cases and more than 20,000 deaths from the virus.